Global Impact?
Posted by bcooney on November 9, 2006
Often times in class we have stated that globalization effects politics. I believe now several weeks further into our study of globalization that political influence is less effected than other areas. That said, I think that the main reason is that globalization is still such a new idea that the political impact is a lagging indicator. The US election has a huge potential for impacting politics in this country.
The idea of a flat world is roughly the same age as the Bush presidency. In that time the President has enjoyed alot of support from a Republican Congress. Now Congress is blue and change is likely in the near future. Speculation has it that some of the following things are likely to occur or be attempted in the next 2 years: tax hike (either an end to the Bush tax cuts and /or a raise in taxes), an immigration change (there have already been attempts and small accomplishments but look for another push probably for an amnesty plan), change in budget deficit (already this year the budget deficit was reduced but look for the Dems to try to become the “fiscally conscious party” in the this two years… doubtful because the long absence of Dem control means many are eager to implement their own spending programs for the first time since ‘94), and finally but less likely attempts for a huge government health care plan.
While the slant of this blog is normally obviously to the right I want to simply address issues and questions of the next two years and the implications they have on probably the next decade of politics in America, ergo world politics.
-Labor in America?
The Dems and ironically Bush share a somewhat similar view on immigration. The moderate and conservative Democrats, the newly elects in this Congress, will probably look to find a compromise somewhere between the blanket amnesty opposed by most Americas and the strict enforcement plans laid out by the GOP in the last year or so. Several idiosyncrasies make this potentially disastrous for the Dems. With the support of most unions and groups like the ALF-CIO the Dems must walk a tight rope between illegal immigration and offending the labor they represent. This issue could make or break the Dems in 2008 even though the GOP was favored in ‘06 on immigration and the issue panned out to be a non issue in ‘06.
-Wages and Taxes
Minimum wage will increase in the next to years and Bush in my estimation won’t veto a responsible increase. Its been along time and needs to be adjusted to inflation. In many states the local minimum wage supersedes the national wage and thus will probably have no effect. My bet $7.85 won’t happen. A huge rate would potentially hurt the economy. Taxes are a toss-up, the economy has been huge since the cuts but look for the rich to take a new hit. How will this affect the market? Ask me in a few months and years.
-Health care
Look for attempted reform but not the universal solution a lot of people want to see. The private market is too strong Bush is too resolute and it won’t happen but there may be more…
