Expertise in Question?

Well I am well into the expert study at this point. The more I write the more I realize the potential of this study. All day while writing though I just keep thinking about Dr. Greenlaw’s look into “Whether its a race to the top, or to the bottom.” Here is my global proposition, I know his paper and research can strengthen what I am writing. I have tweaked my topic several times, but my final product deals with the relationship between political and economic success as a means of developing struggling nations. My premise is that if governments creates a stable environment and move towards freedom and openness they create the economic situations needed to prosper. Similarly economic success achieves political reforms.

Like I mentioned a bit earlier other research would greatly help me. As we go into break and begin to post out papers I would just like to invite anyone to send me their advanced works if it might be beneficially. How global is that? Our research is all helpfully to each-other and with the tools we posses, our research can make an impact on globalization’s image and even perhaps its impact on lives.

WSJ Defict News?

NEWS ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal

Nov. 9, 2006

The Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 6.8% to $64.3 billion in September from a record high in August. Imports fell for the first time since February amid falling oil prices. Exports rose slightly.

The deficit with China rose to a record of $23 billion, pushed higher by a flood of Chinese-made televisions, cell phones and toys being imported to stock American store shelves for Christmas.

For more information: http://online.wsj.com/home/us?mod=djemalert

So what is happening. The trade gap with China widened but the deficit of trade overall decreased. Where is the influx reducing the overall deficit?

Is China really the threat that the US thinks it is? I heard today that China’s economy has a chance to overtake the US economy… in 2040, but how accurate are indicators 30 years from now?

China still faces a major test. The government still faces major shifting if China really emerges as the economic player. The politics of globalization is probably the most lagging indicator of change since it takes years if not decades for a major change to take place. I don’t think China will maintain its current growth levels. It will slow down at some point, but with the current speed of globalization, China’s supply of laborers may lose their jobs from other countries ready to pick up the slack in China. If a political change allows for job loss in China, tension among a newly formed non-communist working class could create havoc.

Global Impact?

Often times in class we have stated that globalization effects politics. I believe now several weeks further into our study of globalization that political influence is less effected than other areas. That said, I think that the main reason is that globalization is still such a new idea that the political impact is a lagging indicator. The US election has a huge potential for impacting politics in this country.

The idea of a flat world is roughly the same age as the Bush presidency. In that time the President has enjoyed alot of support from a Republican Congress. Now Congress is blue and change is likely in the near future. Speculation has it that some of the following things are likely to occur or be attempted in the next 2 years: tax hike (either an end to the Bush tax cuts and /or a raise in taxes), an immigration change (there have already been attempts and small accomplishments but look for another push probably for an amnesty plan), change in budget deficit (already this year the budget deficit was reduced but look for the Dems to try to become the “fiscally conscious party” in the this two years… doubtful because the long absence of Dem control means many are eager to implement their own spending programs for the first time since ‘94), and finally but less likely attempts for a huge government health care plan.

While the slant of this blog is normally obviously to the right I want to simply address issues and questions of the next two years and the implications they have on probably the next decade of politics in America, ergo world politics.

-Labor in America?

The Dems and ironically Bush share a somewhat similar view on immigration. The moderate and conservative Democrats, the newly elects in this Congress, will probably look to find a compromise somewhere between the blanket amnesty opposed by most Americas and the strict enforcement plans laid out by the GOP in the last year or so. Several idiosyncrasies make this potentially disastrous for the Dems. With the support of most unions and groups like the ALF-CIO the Dems must walk a tight rope between illegal immigration and offending the labor they represent. This issue could make or break the Dems in 2008 even though the GOP was favored in ‘06 on immigration and the issue panned out to be a non issue in ‘06.

-Wages and Taxes

Minimum wage will increase in the next to years and Bush in my estimation won’t veto a responsible increase. Its been along time and needs to be adjusted to inflation. In many states the local minimum wage supersedes the national wage and thus will probably have no effect. My bet $7.85 won’t happen. A huge rate would potentially hurt the economy. Taxes are a toss-up, the economy has been huge since the cuts but look for the rich to take a new hit. How will this affect the market? Ask me in a few months and years.

-Health care

Look for attempted reform but not the universal solution a lot of people want to see. The private market is too strong Bush is too resolute and it won’t happen but there may be more…